Buxton-weather.co.uk is an information site about the weather, climate change, natural disasters, air quality etc. The weather on our planet is one big system where all elements depend on each other. For example, a cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean can affect the distribution of pressure across Europe. Not infrequently, this...Read more...
There are about 8,000 meteorological stations on Earth that regularly provide up-to-date weather information. There are world standards on the order and time of observations, as well as a list of meteorological characteristics that are monitored: cloudiness, pressure, wind direction and speed, air temperature and moisture content, soil temperature, and so on. These data are sent to world weather centers.
Each country has its own weather centre, although not all countries have well developed forecast models. There are fourteen generally accepted weather forecasting models. All weather information is publicly available – the World Meteorological Organization works for this. That is, all forecasters can use the data of all models. At the same time, an ideal forecasting model does not yet exist. Some of the weather information is received from the satellite, but it cannot measure everything – even the satellite does not determine the temperature very accurately. But the satellite photographs the clouds well, thanks to which we can restore information about the direction and strength of the wind. The satellite equipment also makes it possible to reconstruct the vertical profile of air temperature and humidity.
How to make a weather forecast
Errors in weather forecasts happen and will not disappear in the near future. To understand where the errors come from, it is necessary to understand how the forecast is made.
We have weather data. They enter the world weather centers, and then they are put into the model as initial conditions. A model is a complex system of hydrodynamic equations with many unknowns. Let’s say we want to get information about some parameter after a certain number of hours – twenty-four hours, forty-eight. To do this, we take the equation that describes this process, and the initial data on the current state of the weather, that is, the data that came from weather stations. By solving these equations, integrating them over time, we obtain the value of the desired parameter after a certain time. Further, these parameters are analyzed by weather forecasters. The model can calculate specific characteristics, but only a person can generalize.